The smells of spring are in the air. Pollen, dust, and rotting mulch. Time to get out the buckets, mops, and rags and tidy up the old homestead. Viceroy Hanley's domain is no different. And its about time for a clean sweep.
Handed his budget for this year, Hanley is having to make some drastic cut backs and hope for the best. Next week, at his management retreat in Utah (we wonder home much retreating will be accomplished among the skiing?), he'll lay out his reduced program for all of the minions to see. Systems engineering, the so far poorly stirred glue of the program, will be the first to suffer by the axe. As Squire Hardcastle departs, many of his fellow SIG (systems engineering group) buddies will be following him out the door as Hanley limits the participation in each SIG to but two people.
But the real cuts are going to be handed to the ARES Upper Stage effort. No amount of Formula 409 will be able to clean up the mess that is about to be spilled. With moths in his wallet, Hanley is going to cut back significantly (again) on propulsion system and structural testing of the stage. Despite the weight problem in the entire vehicle, he is also going to mandate that the minions in Huntsville dispense with the idea of building any part of it out of composites. Why give up this potential weight savings, you ask? Well, in the eyes of the program, metal is a lot easier (read: cheaper) to analyze. So by eliminating composites in the Upper Stage, Hanley can take a lot of analysis and test costs out of the development program. And, hey, if you're only flying four people to the space station, you just might make the weight with this approach after all.
Apollo on Slim-Fast, anyone?
Friday, February 15, 2008
Thursday, February 14, 2008
Giving Up On Steroids
Poor Roger "the Rocket" Clemens. You could almost see him shrinking on the stand yesterday as he proclaimed his innocence. Whether you believe he did it or not, we have now been educated in the dangers inherent in trying to bulk yourself into something you shouldn't be.
The Emperor's self-proclaimed,"Apollo on steroids" is facing the same fate. We've discussed many times here how overweight ORION is, at 5m diameter and six crew to ISS, exceeding the capability of the ill-formed ARES I rocket to lift it. Now it seems that the minions have run out of design tricks to get the weight back in the box. All but one, that is, and they are studying this one hard.
The CEV contractor has been asked to quietly address the weight issue by reducing the crew size to four for trips to the ISS and see how that helps. That appears to be the only way the capsule will limbo under the wire. And the implications are just as astounding.
Four crew to ISS means a CEV and a Soyuz would always have to be docked to bring six crew back in the event of an emergency evacuation. Alternately, the permanent crew size on ISS might have to be reduced to four. So instead of a full complement of Americans onboard, perhaps just one with the car keys is all that we can afford?
The much smaller Apollo was once configured to carry five astronauts back from Skylab in the event of a primary taxi failure. Now the Emperor's folly, steroids and all, appears unlikely to achieve that very level of performance.
The Emperor's self-proclaimed,"Apollo on steroids" is facing the same fate. We've discussed many times here how overweight ORION is, at 5m diameter and six crew to ISS, exceeding the capability of the ill-formed ARES I rocket to lift it. Now it seems that the minions have run out of design tricks to get the weight back in the box. All but one, that is, and they are studying this one hard.
The CEV contractor has been asked to quietly address the weight issue by reducing the crew size to four for trips to the ISS and see how that helps. That appears to be the only way the capsule will limbo under the wire. And the implications are just as astounding.
Four crew to ISS means a CEV and a Soyuz would always have to be docked to bring six crew back in the event of an emergency evacuation. Alternately, the permanent crew size on ISS might have to be reduced to four. So instead of a full complement of Americans onboard, perhaps just one with the car keys is all that we can afford?
The much smaller Apollo was once configured to carry five astronauts back from Skylab in the event of a primary taxi failure. Now the Emperor's folly, steroids and all, appears unlikely to achieve that very level of performance.
Columbus Sets Sail
Its hard to believe, but the space station has finally witnessed the arrival of the European's Columbus module. Reading the press, one would believe that it was pulled out of the box, batteries installed, and viola', it works just like it is supposed to. Unfortunately, as in most cases, life is never as it seems.
Columbus is having its share of hiccups. Commands have to be sent twice to gets things turned on. What should be steady status bits toggle on and off. Cooling loops are not working as advertised. Sounds like normal birthing pains, no? Why should this be of concern?
Why we are worried, and not just for Columbus but for all of ISS, is that Columbus experienced none of these issues on the ground when supposedly tied into a replica of the ISS flight software systems. The fact that it is experiencing these issues on-orbit means that the minions do not understand the configuration they have on-orbit...and have not replicated it faithfully on the ground. And not having a known configuration makes for tough troubleshooting when time is short.
What other surprises await? It will only become more complicated, with trouble lurking around each successive corner, as more pieces and parts are added, moving towards assembly complete. Some time needs to be allocated for working through these issues, to understand the real configuration, and to develop an understanding of the implications on continued operations. Not doing so is a recipe for disaster.
Columbus is having its share of hiccups. Commands have to be sent twice to gets things turned on. What should be steady status bits toggle on and off. Cooling loops are not working as advertised. Sounds like normal birthing pains, no? Why should this be of concern?
Why we are worried, and not just for Columbus but for all of ISS, is that Columbus experienced none of these issues on the ground when supposedly tied into a replica of the ISS flight software systems. The fact that it is experiencing these issues on-orbit means that the minions do not understand the configuration they have on-orbit...and have not replicated it faithfully on the ground. And not having a known configuration makes for tough troubleshooting when time is short.
What other surprises await? It will only become more complicated, with trouble lurking around each successive corner, as more pieces and parts are added, moving towards assembly complete. Some time needs to be allocated for working through these issues, to understand the real configuration, and to develop an understanding of the implications on continued operations. Not doing so is a recipe for disaster.
And Then There Were....
Well, one less anyway, as another of the big mice jumps ship this week. Squire Chris Hardcastle, who has brought confusion and more viewgraphs than one would think possible to Constellation systems engineering, is about to depart for more forgiving pastures. Having accomplished his goal of getting his support contract bids in the door, he is now ready to move on.
Given the sorry state of affairs he leaves behind, we will watch with great interest who takes his seat next.
Given the sorry state of affairs he leaves behind, we will watch with great interest who takes his seat next.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
All's Quiet on the E Street Front
It's been a quiet week in never never land. Well, not really, but you've heard all this news before. It's like the summer re-runs, but summer isn't here yet.
The Emperor launched into a tirade blaming the failure of his follies on the "losers" who didn't get the contracts for ORION and ARES. Funny, how is it that the losers know so much about the major technical issues facing these systems? Yet there are more tiger teams up and running now than you can shake a stick at. Why is it that PDR has now slipped six months then? You know the answer to the first question. But the answer to the second is that PDR really should have been slipped a year as Viceory Hanley originally wanted to do. The reason it is only slipping six months is that the Emperor wants to sit in on a Systems Performance Review before he is replaced by the next administration. So we must have a PDR before December.
But how can that PDR happen when MLAS and land vs. water probably won't have been resolved by then. Or will they? And if the answers are that close at hand, then why is the Emperor wasting Hanley's precious resources on them at this late stage. In a word: jobs.
The other "losers" will meet this week in California to proclaim a new vision for space exploration. Perhaps they should take a page from one of the other historical groups who broke off from the pack to heed a new vision. Witness the results of Mitt Romney's campaign, after all.
And finally, the latest set of "losers" for COTS will be announced this week. Delayed one week by the shuttle launch, we will find out just how uncommerical commercial space is about to become.
Just after the STS-122 launch, we learned that the Europeans really don't have a "stomach for space travel" after all.
In the background, the shuttle huggers now have enough material in hand for 17 tanks. Last we checked there were only 12 or so flights to go before 2010. Despite public proclaimations to the contrary, the huggers are not giving ground to Constellation at Michoud or Stennis. The floor space and key test stands still have "do not disturb" signs on them.
Like we said, not much has changed this week.
The Emperor launched into a tirade blaming the failure of his follies on the "losers" who didn't get the contracts for ORION and ARES. Funny, how is it that the losers know so much about the major technical issues facing these systems? Yet there are more tiger teams up and running now than you can shake a stick at. Why is it that PDR has now slipped six months then? You know the answer to the first question. But the answer to the second is that PDR really should have been slipped a year as Viceory Hanley originally wanted to do. The reason it is only slipping six months is that the Emperor wants to sit in on a Systems Performance Review before he is replaced by the next administration. So we must have a PDR before December.
But how can that PDR happen when MLAS and land vs. water probably won't have been resolved by then. Or will they? And if the answers are that close at hand, then why is the Emperor wasting Hanley's precious resources on them at this late stage. In a word: jobs.
The other "losers" will meet this week in California to proclaim a new vision for space exploration. Perhaps they should take a page from one of the other historical groups who broke off from the pack to heed a new vision. Witness the results of Mitt Romney's campaign, after all.
And finally, the latest set of "losers" for COTS will be announced this week. Delayed one week by the shuttle launch, we will find out just how uncommerical commercial space is about to become.
Just after the STS-122 launch, we learned that the Europeans really don't have a "stomach for space travel" after all.
In the background, the shuttle huggers now have enough material in hand for 17 tanks. Last we checked there were only 12 or so flights to go before 2010. Despite public proclaimations to the contrary, the huggers are not giving ground to Constellation at Michoud or Stennis. The floor space and key test stands still have "do not disturb" signs on them.
Like we said, not much has changed this week.
Saturday, February 2, 2008
Handicapping COTS
This week the theater on E street will once again light up to introduce a new cast of characters gathered to accept a pittance from the Emperor in exchange for dancing proudly for him in public. Or will they be that new after all?
COTS 2.0 ostensibly will be announced this week. Let's review the bidding.
Spacehab is hanging by one hand at graveside. Orbital has a plan for "yet another rocket" while SpaceX is already supposed to be far down the road on their new one. PlanetSpace has brought ATK and LM into the fold for credibiliy, has cash, and begins to look like the "most likely to succeed"company in the 2008 yearbook. And then, there is Boeing.
Boeing! Not Andrews? That's right.
So Boeing, with its deep pockets, understanding of the problem, and most trusted vendor of Viceroy Gerst is standing at the threshold of filling "the gap." If the stigma of being a big guy playing in the little guy's pond can be overcome, Boeing will provide the country with a viable solution to fill this extremely strategic need. And COTS will be exposed for the sham that it is.
And the demise of Orion/Ares won't be far behind.
COTS 2.0 ostensibly will be announced this week. Let's review the bidding.
Spacehab is hanging by one hand at graveside. Orbital has a plan for "yet another rocket" while SpaceX is already supposed to be far down the road on their new one. PlanetSpace has brought ATK and LM into the fold for credibiliy, has cash, and begins to look like the "most likely to succeed"company in the 2008 yearbook. And then, there is Boeing.
Boeing! Not Andrews? That's right.
So Boeing, with its deep pockets, understanding of the problem, and most trusted vendor of Viceroy Gerst is standing at the threshold of filling "the gap." If the stigma of being a big guy playing in the little guy's pond can be overcome, Boeing will provide the country with a viable solution to fill this extremely strategic need. And COTS will be exposed for the sham that it is.
And the demise of Orion/Ares won't be far behind.
Pressure to Perform
Poor Viceroy Hanley. The guy just can't get a break. And that, of course, will eventually break him.
The Orion/ARES program are haltingly being pushed by the Emperor towards a PDR this year. Despite numerous open technical issues, including the supposedly unresolved landing and abort modes, PDR is stuck on the calendar. How do you hold a PDR if you are not in a position to select ALAS over MLAS and might change the entire aerodynamic configuration of the launch vehicle after that PDR?
Hanley tried managing the program, slipped the ARES 1Y launch date, and promptly got called up the hill. "Jeff Screwed Up," was the Emperor's quote to the assembled masses at a breakfast a couple of weeks ago. One wonders how the "screw-up" can get up in the morning, look himself in the mirror, and convince himself he is anything more than a puppet. And Marsha's puppet at that.
Since then, Hanley has tried a couple of times to get the PDRs moved to the right. Give him credit. But, the Emperor is unrelenting. He wants to leave the throne having gotten PDR behind him and a systems review that follows on the books. No matter how incomplete or ineffective. Its a mockery of the process. And its costing us, all of us taxpayers, a lot of money that is being wasted on the incomplete design of these systems that will never see the light of day.
Any self-respecting program manager would do the honorable thing at this point and throw his badge on the table. And he would become a hero in the process, opening everyone's eyes to the lack of cloth on his boss's misbegotten plans.
The Orion/ARES program are haltingly being pushed by the Emperor towards a PDR this year. Despite numerous open technical issues, including the supposedly unresolved landing and abort modes, PDR is stuck on the calendar. How do you hold a PDR if you are not in a position to select ALAS over MLAS and might change the entire aerodynamic configuration of the launch vehicle after that PDR?
Hanley tried managing the program, slipped the ARES 1Y launch date, and promptly got called up the hill. "Jeff Screwed Up," was the Emperor's quote to the assembled masses at a breakfast a couple of weeks ago. One wonders how the "screw-up" can get up in the morning, look himself in the mirror, and convince himself he is anything more than a puppet. And Marsha's puppet at that.
Since then, Hanley has tried a couple of times to get the PDRs moved to the right. Give him credit. But, the Emperor is unrelenting. He wants to leave the throne having gotten PDR behind him and a systems review that follows on the books. No matter how incomplete or ineffective. Its a mockery of the process. And its costing us, all of us taxpayers, a lot of money that is being wasted on the incomplete design of these systems that will never see the light of day.
Any self-respecting program manager would do the honorable thing at this point and throw his badge on the table. And he would become a hero in the process, opening everyone's eyes to the lack of cloth on his boss's misbegotten plans.
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