Many moons ago, GAO suggested that the minions were incapable of accurately prognosticating how a program will turn out in the long haul. Of course, our favorite soon-to-be Italian Waiter has been claiming success in meeting schedules. Now those GAO predictions are starting to look pretty good. And the real pasta is still uncooked.
The rocket contractor can't seem to get anything out the door these days. The first test of the five segment organ pipe is now slipping at least six months to September from April 2. The second and third tests of the achy-shakey booster now push into 2010 This follows directly on the heels of the Ares-1X slip, conveniently leaving a launch pad empty to support the Hubble repair mission.
Our April Fool has also missed on some estimates for getting Ares V infrastructure ready for trips to the moon. $2B has become $9B in the latest cost round-up. Given a flat budget for the next bunch of years, look for those first trips to the moon somewhere around 2021 with an outpost hanging out a shingle in maybe 2023. Of course, Viceroy Hanley's confidence in those numbers is only 65%. Good enough for government work.
Sounds like we're out of lasagna, doesn't it? Chinese take-out anyone?
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Doesn't have to be that way. Choose an affordable architecture that uses the current Shuttle infrastructure and you are there in five years. Unfortunately Shuttle production capability is being actively laid-off/excessed as a result of the transfer of funds to the bloated Constellation program.
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