Thursday, June 18, 2009

You Make the Call!

"In September 2005, NASA authorized the Ares I project to proceed with the development of a new human-rated crew launch vehicle with a 24.5-metric ton lift capability and a total budget of $14.4 billion for design, development, test, and evaluation (DDT&E), and production." (GAO-08-51)

Ares Project manager Steve Cook "said that the cost estimate for developing the Ares I and seeing it through its first manned flight was $35 billion. Contrary to the claims of critics, he said, costs have not spiraled out of control." (NY Times 6/18/09)

Nunn-McCurdy? Anyone?


kT said...

I don't see how anyone can take any shuttle derived expendable heavy lift launch vehicle development seriously, after such a very poor Ares I result.

It just ain't gonna happen folks.

RayGun said...

Its the new math. 1+1=3 if it makes you feel good.

Anonymous said...

What's worse, is that if you look at Ares and Orion
and a 10 year life cycle you get $100 Billion.
When I, amongst others, opined that Ares 1 would be $100 Billion and the Lunar Landing would be a Trillion, we were berated by a parade of NASA managers.

Ares 1 and Constellation will require the entire NASA workforce in all the major centers to keep flying, and that will be 8 billion a year in ops costs for about 4-6 flights per year.

That's easily north of $100 Billion.

Such a pity, EELV would provide 5 missions a year
and cost less then a billion a year including a capsule.

Only NASA can figure out how to spend 100X more then existing solutions.

Anonymous said...

MANNED flight, I'm sure that $35B is including Orion, not just Ares I costs.

Anonymous said...

Be careful about that $100 number. Its for LCC through 2020 only! That means its really only for DDT&E, no real lunar ops in that. We won't be able to afford that.